Do The Math

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will soon discover, if he hasn’t already, the corner into which he’s painted his country – for by brandishing the threat of a small handful of nuclear weapons in a world where the major players, especially the United States, already have tens of thousands, he has put his country on a mathematically untenable path, the long-term consequences of which far out-weigh the short-term political benefits.

North Korea, busily firing its little rockets into the sea, has done the same, though it is closer to its unintended consequences than Iran. Unless the saber rattling is mostly for domestic consumption, it’s hard to imagine a more foolish course for Kim Jong-Il to adopt than his current one. Public bluster is one thing, but execution of an implied threat is another. Should North Korea launch a nuclear strike on its southern neighbor, U.S. bases, or even Japan, it would leave itself open for a nuclear retaliation several hundred times as large, at the very least, one that it could not survive. Simply put, once a small, rogue state plays it’s nuclear card, the game is over. The world community would not condemn a nuclear response against such an act, and would, in fact, have a clear duty to defend itself in kind. Any country that defended itself in kind would feel no opprobrium after such retaliation. The Western world, now returning to rationality after a brief foray into political extremism, can once again be counted upon to not “go nuclear” first, but such restraint on retaliation would be removed should a small state use its few warheads in what could only be called a suicidal display of defiance.

A little simple math might be helpful. Current estimates put North Korea’s entire nuclear stockpile at 6-8 warheads. A single US Ohio Class submarine can currently carry 24 independently targeted missiles, each with five Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) warheads, each capable of striking a different target. Assuming only one such sub is stationed just off the coast of North Korea, should Kim Jong-Il launch a nuclear device, 110 North Korean targets would be obliterated within a scant few minutes. The logic of the math of this scenario is inescapable – the consequences of North Korea using its few nuclear weapons would assure it’s own destruction, utterly and completely. By joining the nuclear club, Kim Jong-Il has painted himself into a corner. He can’t possibly use the weapons he’s worked so secretly to create without assuring his own immediate destruction. With this perspective, the weapons’ value is not in its use, but in the threat of it’s use. If that threat is not credible, the weapon has no value, and in fact, becomes a liability. This is exactly the situation in North Korea today.

Similarly, Iran’s leadership now finds itself facing the same question. A single or even small multiple Iranian nuclear strike on Israel or US bases would signal that all restraints are off, all diplomacies suspended, and that nuclear consequences on the aggressor would be acceptable by the world community, as sad and unfortunate as that scenario would be. Though a larger country, Iran’s math would work out much the same. Ceasing to exist in a moment of madness and misdirection, the price Iran would pay for a few small strikes at an enemy, however devastating, would be too dear for any sane leader to contemplate. Yet, Ahmadinejad follows his current course.

This is obvious, to rational people, but it is clear that neither Kim Jong-Il nor President Ahmadinejad have much care for the consequences to their citizens, nor engage in a long-term understanding of the precarious nature of matters they’ve created for themselves. However well nuclear braggadocio may play on the domestic front, it has the opposite effect on the world stage. China, now a strong business partner with the West with a considerable investment in international stability, has nothing to lose and everything to gain by ridding itself of its troublesome “little brother,” though a certain amount of self-righteous public noise would have to be made. The Islamic world would also put on the face of bewailing the collapse of Iran, but with the exception of various highly vocal radical groups, most of the Middle East, including the Arab countries, would secretly be rubbing their hands with glee should Iran step off the precipice. Leaders of most countries, no matter what their ideologies, innately understand the value of civil stability, both for their own political futures, and that of the world community as a whole. Therefore, the isolation that rogue states bring upon themselves as a result of their actions results in an untenable political position, heady in the short term, but unsustainable over time.

Libya’s return to international cooperation and it’s accompanying benefits serve as an example when errant states correct their behavior. Though not yet a model citizen – Libya is still a transit and destination country for men and women from sub-Saharan Africa and Asia for purposes of forced labor and commercial sexual exploitation - it’s leader, Col. Muammar Qadhafi, has made great progress in normalizing relations with the west, having renounced terrorism in Dec. 2003, discontinued it’s WMD program and allowed international inspections. Economic sanctions have been lifted, business investment has increased, and the US and Libya have exchanged ambassadors in January of 2009, normalizing relations for the first time in years. The message here is simple – if Libya can do it, so can North Korea and Iran.

If these two states have indeed painted themselves into this corner, it is easy enough for them to get out - though at this point, it is easier for Iran than North Korea. The taste of crow is never enjoyable, but at least it’s a dish that everyone has tasted, including the U.S. In either case, the consequences of continuing down their current paths falls most heavily on them, not anyone else, and should these states make the error of nuclear engagement, their ‘allies’ would vanish in the mists, privately glad they’re gone. If these two countries do the math, sanity and peace might yet prevail.